Posts Tagged ‘Monetary policy’

0830 2011 Helping the GSEs and FHA – Some historical background, a few thoughts and the call for union and transparency

Thursday, September 1st, 2011

The following letter is the touched up version of a recent response addressed to members of Community Development Banking email listserv regarding some of their member’s interests in working with us on FARJHO. The list members include thousands of community development practitioners, credit unions, banks, CDCs, loan funds, trade associations, regulators, academics, governments and other non-profits.

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Dear FARJHO Ally,

Thanks for the many responses, inquiries and requests to work together on the FARJHO program. By now I think many of you have already had a reasonable understanding of what FARJHO is as a new form of home ownership structure and what it might be able to do to help solve our country’s current economic problems, perhaps with the further assistance of using the more powerful but more complicated SwapRent contract to prevent home owner foreclosures at a later stage as well.

At the moment we are planning to respond to FHFA’s recent call for assistance on August 10th of ideas from the public regarding how to deal with their massive REO portfolios. I have a few thoughts to share with this group for the transparency purpose and I would like to call for many of you to consider joining hands with us in one united proposal.

Why do we need your help? First, we do not even know whether this latest attempt is a genuine call for ideas or is it simply another facade to prepare the pubic that the well-connected crony forces may come in again to buy the national assets (since they were funded by the taxpayer’s money) in bulk at a deep discounts, like how the many crony Russian oligarchs siphoned the national assets at an unbelievable great bargain price with preferential loans to private hands with a Midas touch after the Soviet Union had collapsed.

The distrust is not unwarranted. Remember when the crisis first emerged in 2008 and the federal government came up with their first solution that left many of us flabbergasted? While people are losing homes and jobs left and right everywhere, the first thing they did was to come up with a plan to use tax payer’s money to give one thousand dollars to the mortgage service firms owned by their crony friends for each of the loan mods that they help close?

Don’t be surprised to hear later on about how many genius businessmen will have made another hero of themselves in those public private partnerships (PPP) or joint ventures with GSEs from buying low and selling high again. We already have plenty of those well-connected “heros” who bought the distressed loan assets at extreme discounts from the federal governments over the past few years. Why do we want to let our inactions to make us sit and watch those crony heros back in actions again?

In the proposal from the consortium that includes PeoplesAlly/InvestorsAlly there is no bulk sale of assets necessary. It would be the most fair and equitable way to channel the potential profits and wealth in a recovery directly back to the local communities on Main Street. The GSEs could simply alter theirs and HUD’s current individual REO selling process by adding the FARJHO way. Therefore the bargain price level could be maintained for all types of FARJHO JPIs (joint property investors) directly, irrespective of whether the potential buyers are Tom, Dick and Harry in your neighborhood, some powerful private equity firms in DC or elite hedge funds on Wall Street. Under free market principles, all private capital could form various funds to co-invest with other small potato individual JPIs to directly participate together to help create FARJHO LLCs to own homes one home at a time.

This way, the individual investors in various local communities on Main Street could at least participate on a level playing field by buying at the original REO price. We need more capitalist solutions designed exactly to serve these independently wealthy individuals, small businessmen and entrepreneurs in local communities who may have access to cash or borrow individually at member level to invest at the same price with the same terms as those Wall Street elite financial institutions would to buy these distressed REO assets. These elite institutions are the one who have the exclusive access to the almost zero cost of fund already, thanks to Bernanke. They should not be dished out another advantage given to them to buy these assets in bulk at the expense of the small town investors.

There is really no need for any other crony hedge funds and private equity firms to get to buy these assets in bulk at deep discounted prices and for them to jack up the prices by doing nothing first and then engage us later to resell the REO homes through the FARJHO structure again. Even worse, the dark forces behind these elite financial institutions may simply blatantly steal the FARJHO related ideas and call it something else with a new name to do it themselves without any respect of legal intellectual property rights or ethics.

Catch me if you can seems to be the modus operandi for some of them because they always bet on the fact that you would not have a deeper pocket for legal fees to fight with them to enforce justice. We have learned that in a hard way within the last 10 years of dealing with some of those unscrupulous and unethical institutions but this is more of a future memoir material and not to be expanded further here.

The FARJHO method is really a very simple concept but you would be surprised why it has not caught on by the government and many other powerful institutions already with our relentless campaigning efforts within the past 6 years. Turning a deaf ear seems to be too simplistic as a reason for it.

As explained in the previous CDB list serve posts, the campaign work to create the awareness and adoption acceptance has been a long journey. Over the past 6 years, I have met up many key Congressional staff, high level Fed officials and the Treasury TARP team in the Treasury Department back in October, 2008 when I was in DC to speak at the Housing Finance Innovation Lab sponsored by the Milken Institute. I have also spoken with both the Democratic and Republican presidential economic teams back then. Many of these historical high level discussions, comments and feedback are available to those who may be interested on a confidential basis.

The dealings with the private sector banks, major mortgage lenders and Wall Street firms started way back in late 2006. After spending our own money flying around the country to their headquarters to make presentations and have our brains picked, torn apart and examined by their top mortgage strategy teams, senior executives and technical staffs from before the crisis even started in 2006 to early 2008, although there was plenty of interest and enthusiasm, nothing concretely resulted from them. Later on it became very clear to us that these major private sector financial institutions have no more credibility to launch anything new in the consumer markets. Try to imagine if some folk from Countrywide knocks on your door trying to sell you a new kind of mortgage or a new home ownership structure? What would you do?

The only positive experience that I had from dealing with them is perhaps the Pasadena based IndyMac Bank at the time. In a statement to its board members and key staffs, its CEO was very excited about the SwapRent idea to fix their own distressed mortgage loan portfolios, He instructed his staff back in 2007 to engage us and not to study to death of our proposal until it is too late like what their staff had done with the new ABX idea before. However, studying to death was exactly what his staff team did. By mid 2008, they were taken over by FDIC.

We are not opposed to working with the big banks as long as they consider themselves the “good banks” and start doing the right things from now on, although there are a few exceptions. I still have direct email correspondences with many CEOs and senior management teams and some of their fully owned private equity arms which are searching for solutions to help the banks to manage their troubled mortgage portfolios. After picking our brains on FARJHO and SwapRent what they have been brooding in their strategy meetings is beyond anybody’s guess at this moment. It is very unlikely that they will share the same egalitarian mission-driven values that many of you in this group pursue.

Since it did not seem to get anywhere with these federal Administration folks, Congressional politicians, big banks and the Wall Street firms in the US, I spent the whole year in 2008 campaigning to and dealing with various state, county and city governments and the housing agencies. Some prominent head of housing finance authority once indicated that they had been working with Goldman Sachs in terms of new ideas or strategies on mortgages and they were therefore “in good hands” as the reason not to pursue a deeper discussion with us. I don’t blame her. Who else wasn’t charmed and enamored by those sexy investment banks before in happier time? The problem now may be that many of them may still have that poisonous infatuation or fatal attraction for doing business with those Wall Street firms for some reason, no matter how dangerous it may mean and turn out to be again for those local residents that they serve.

Our FARJHO/SwapRent work has since evolved into a grassroots effort. Rather than seeking endorsements from the politicians we are getting direct votes from the consumers instead. The movement has finally started picking up momentum in 2011. What we will need now is to find some major organizations to affiliate ourselves with as far as the political force and the political will are concerned in order to provide the economic benefits directly to the American people.

The best economic ideas or new innovations would have no teeth and they are useless if there is no political power or monetary power behind them. Back in 2005 I made a miracle happen by introducing the first Yuan denominated Interest Rate Swap into the Chinese interbank market. As a result of the new ability to lock in the long term cost of funding from a bank’s asset/liability management perspectives, we, China Everbright Bank where I worked as the Chief Investment Officer and an EVP, became the first bank in China to introduce the long term fixed rate mortgages to the entire Chinese home owners market. The RMB IRS market that we had started has since evolved into a trillions of dollar financial market by now. Please see the attached WSJ article ( http://www.box.net/shared/sz6uij0f0q0shkye0l7o ) as one of my previous track records of making new financial innovations and new financial markets happen.

The reason why I was able to do it within a very short time of only a bit over a year to introduce the most capitalistic concept and method of financial derivatives to the biggest communist country in the world at the time was due primarily to the hire-and-fire power that I had at the time. I was among the top executive board level management leaders in the sixth largest bank in China. At the high management level, there wasn’t a lot of endless debate by committee discussions on whether to proceed or not to proceed since I was brought in and reported directly to the president of the bank who is a strong and forceful leader. Any junior managers who did not understand the new project were allowed to go back, study and come back to execute it. If they still could not handle it they would have to step aside to let other more competent persons to make their assigned tasks happen. Nobody is allowed to sit there as a bottleneck and study new ideas at their own pace for their own enjoyment. That was how an unstoppable execution team was formed.

I had never been a political person and financial rewards have never been among the prime motives for doing the things that I do. As described in the WSJ article, that I am builder, not a keeper. I simply enjoy the hard work to blaze the trail. Along the way, the things that I have created have over and over again helped many others advance their political careers and most other people who had lent a hand and participated in the early stage eventually made much more money for themselves while I left and moved on to build other new projects.

As for this current FHFA proposal, we have until September 15th to send it in. I have had some not so pleasant experiences dealing with these federal agencies due to my economic policy-wise dissenting blog posts. I had been excluded from many opportunities to present my academic papers and speak to the housing and community development professionals in the FRB sponsored conference events due to my explicit economic policy dissents with the Fed’s monetary policies. I do not agree with their unwise monetary policies and the various QE programs.

For one thing, why did Bernanke and his cohorts even bother to raise the interest rates repeatedly in such a rush back in 2004/2005 to pop the housing asset bubble built during the Greenspan era to trigger a crisis? Wouldn’t a softer approach in raising rates have been much more prudent? After irresponsibly popping the housing bubble to create the crises without any prudent soft landing plans for the ensuing negative consequences, they went on a money pumping binge to reverse the damages by lowering the rates to the extreme in a panic. Jerking our economy through the unnecessary extreme ups and downs of interest rate manipulations seems to be the only things they thought they knew how to do under the disguise of an overly touted Milton Friedman style of Monetary Policy. Looking at the net effects since Bernanke took over in 2005 (a FRB member since 2002), do you really still think that they knew what they were doing?

The way they are trying to reflate the stocks, bonds and commodity asset bubbles now at a speed that would make Greenspan’s loose monetary policies considered a child play. All these new Bernanke led loose monetary policies were done at the expense of extreme negative consequences of an accelerated and unprecedented polarization of the economic wealth redistribution in America with the rich getting richer and the poor getting flat broke. Crisis is indeed too precious a thing to waste for many of those profiteering cronies who took advantage of these situations.

I think these incompetent policy makers owe our country a big apology.

I do not subscribe to Krugman’s simplistic throwing good money at the bad trying to hope for something to stick kind of Keynesian solutions either. If simply telling people to throw money at the problems to solve a problem could be considered a genius, then many people could easily become a genius. Our own government would be full of geniuses already then. Solving problems without squandering money away should probably deserve more credit.

When John Maynard Keynes lived back in the 30′s and 40′s there weren’t any fast telecommunication infrastructure, money wiring mechanism, fast speed trading technologies and convenient transportation means, money from either aggressive monetary policies or even fiscal policies could have stayed in the same country long enough to stimulate the domestic economy. Nowadays that the excess liquidity the federal folks have created would simply turn into hot money instantly by the elite minority private equity companies, banks, hedge funds and Wall Street firms to flow into high GDP growth emerging markets to benefit themselves personally with us average Americans still holding an empty bag with not even a bread crumb falling on our heads.

Remember the last time you read in the news about how some investment gurus on Wall Street and the big banks saying they are expanding in China and India as a new strategy and many are moving their operations to Singapore? That is where all our federally empowered low cost of money went and continue to head for. Therefore a new way has to be created that the stimulus money could become local property based and paid out directly to the local residents in local communities here in America for it to have the desired economic stimulus effects of creating local jobs and local economic activities. That is exactly what the SwapRent contract was created to do (please see more details below).

Bernanke often prides himself as a student turned expert of the 30′s depression but I wonder why we all have to buy into the more than 70 year old 30′s solutions and lessons that he and the Keynes worshiping Krugman gang are trying to sell to us to solve our country’s current economic woes. Those solutions may have worked to a minor degree to help countries get out of their depression/recessions in the 30s or 40′s but it is not likely to make any contributions to our country in any way now in this technologically very different world.

Some may also think that it was World War II that dug us out of the economic conundrum in the 40′s, but the two wars we had and still having now seem to have dug us into even deeper troubles. If you don’t have the manufacturing capability anymore, waging wars will only make China and other manufacturing oriented Asian countries even richer, and as for us, perhaps only a few more drone joy stick playing teenage billionaires. Economists and economic historians can tell you histories but what valuable contributions history could provide that is relevant in a totally different environment may be questionable. Managing a country in the modern world by asking them what they see in their rear view mirrors could only bring you a major head-on crash sooner or later.

In my humble views, incompetent government policy makers, like incompetent politicians, should be voted out of their jobs in a true democracy. They should be responsible for the precious time lost in having viable solutions early on to fix our country’s economic problems and the further deterioration of our national economy. A simple apology just won’t do it.

It may not make sense for us to simply sit there to wait for a pat on the back like a school boy by these incompetent policy decision makers and willingly hand over our dedicated research results and hard earned solutions to them to let them save their undeserved jobs, take credit and let their cronies profit from it. We would rather find some other new blood of policy makers just like we would like to find other new ambitious and forceful politicians to champion these causes to bring the economic benefits to our citizens in a new Administration through the election process. In that regard, we have indeed been waiting for these new generations of smart and capable politicians to emerge so that we could wholeheartedly support them behind their back with the implementations of these new solutions as a major part of their economic policy campaign platform.

People do not always get what is most economically beneficial to them. They only get whatever the politicians tell them to get. What we will need to do is to try to find those good future leaders for our country and rally behind their back with these newly invented economic solutions.

For a new alternative proposal on how to solve our country’s current economic problems on a pure free enterprise basis without spending any of the tax payer’s money or incurring further national debts we will need the new policy makers to seriously consider this “New Third Way” to economic policy management. Please kindly make sure you read the Chapter 6 of my introductory article on SwapRent that was published in the December 2009 issue of the Journal of Housing Finance International published by International Union of Housing Finance (IUHF) at http://www.box.net/shared/v24qtqip4hlgff5l1646 and the following blog post.

http://peoplesally.wordpress.com/2011/02/19/02202011-it-is-not-keynesian-it-is-not-monetarist-perhaps-we-could-call-it-swaprentism-any-better-suggestions/

Anyway, enough about the background info. The reason why I felt strongly that this complete transparency of what had happened to date is necessary so that I would not be advised and recommended to spend the next 6 years going round and round with the same people in power again. They already had their chances but they chose to lead our country down in a different path of what we have today. AAA credit and economic super power status could not be reversed back so easily and the debts that they have piled up won’t go away any time soon. The top Wall Street elites may pretty soon migrate to China to pursue further personal wealth for themselves. You and I will be left on our own and we’d better start planning our own futures together on our own soon.

The SwapRent solution should also better come after FARJHO has been successfully implemented. What I propose now regarding implementing the FARJHO program is that we would like to invite the state, county and local housing authorities, housing finance agencies, pension funds, endowments, foundations and local credit unions, community banks, non-profit groups, to join us in a proposal to create a national operational critical mass to handle large scale deployment to help FHFA implement the FARJHO based solutions and perhaps at a later stage, the SwapRent based solutions to avoid foreclosures as well. More on that later.

Each of your housing authorities, housing finance agencies and non-profit groups locally will handle the local FARJHO transactions and we will continue to advise and conduct the necessary training seminars to your staff and your trainers for your local organization to be able to conduct the actual local deployment yourselves. We will also work on creating a national standard of practice for these new FARJHO structures, taking each individual State laws into consideration. This could all be done on a non-profit basis but we do need funding and operational support to make this a reality.

I would like to sincerely invite each of you to step up to the task and do whatever you could from your end to make the necessary contributions in order to save our country’s economic futures together. Sorry about the long post but full transparency is probably the best way going forward to make this happen to the full benefits of the American people without any potential interference by biased politics or any privileged private groups.

Although the current purpose is to make a RFI response to FHFA together, our alliance should target a broader audience on a pure free market basis beyond simply helping the GSEs and FHA to clean up their own mess. While the need of GSEs and FHA may be a burden that we will need to address on patriotic grounds, they are not the one who would get to call the shots on what directions the FARJHO program should head in the future. Politically nobody has decided on their destiny yet since they are too big to fail at the moment. We should not let FARJHO be a sacrificial lamp to feed the monsters and let them refuel and grow again to postpone their eventual bigger ultimate implosion at very American citizen’s even higher expense.

Therefore, I hope there are some other alternative stronger organizations politically and financially out there who are willing and capable to take on the challenge to lead this project. We will be quite happy to play a secondary support role to provide the necessary intellectual properties and training efforts to make the team effort more successful. Please feel free to contact me directly for a further more private discussion. Thanks again.

Ralph Y. Liu
Managing Director
PeoplesAlly Foundation
23 Corporate Plaza Drive, Suite 133
Newport Beach, CA 92660
Tel: 1-888-456-8881 x 888
Fax: 1-888-315-3831
info@PeoplesAlly.org
http://www.PeoplesAlly.org
http://www.twitter.com/SwapRent
http://SwapRent.com/blog/
http://www.linkedin.com/in/ralphyliu

03/30/2011 Mr. Obama, Tear down this Wall … Street! – A Matrix movie fan’s interpretation of the Bailout of Wall Street.

Wednesday, March 30th, 2011

So Barack, or Barry rather, please allow me to be casual with you. I am no Ronald and you are definitely much more handsome then Mikhail Gorbachev without a piece of salami hanging on the forehead. I’d just like to have a frank talk with you about our country’s economic policies and Matrix the movie. Perhaps you wouldn’t mind if I call you Mr. Anderson? Neo?

First I’d like to apologize for calling you a puppet subprime President in my earlier blog dated 5/23/2009. I understand what it could be like to be the only Hussein among the establishments and I feel for you.

The frustration came from the expectation we had of you, the One would not reinsert the Prime Program back into Matrix at the Source one more time again back when we voted for you to be the President. But the opposite seems to be exactly what you have been doing. You started to look more like Agent Smith now. I hope you are a Matrix movie fan as I am and you know what I meant. If so, you may find the following analogies of our country’s Wall Street culture, your economic policies and the movie story lines interesting.

You see, Wall Street is the Matrix that has been controlling us the working class (the Humans). Out here on Main Street (Zion City) in the local communities our home ownership structure has been dominated and dictated by the exclusively debt-based mortgage industry (Zero One) created by Wall Street, Fannie, Freddie and their big bank buddies (the Machines). They have in the past been placing in their local branches those docile captured humans while keeping their minds in the Matrix in order to help the Machines disseminate the credit abuse culture and ensure their control of the Earth.

The Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and their buddies (the Architects) has been engineering the bailouts of the crony riches, printing and pumping more money into the Matrix system to maintain its vitality and crony establishments the same way the Architects have been trying to bring you, the One, together with the Source in order to reboot the Matrix and destroy the Zion yet one more cycle, the same way all your five predecessors did.

From the Berlin Wall coming down to the recent Arab unrests in the Middle East (the Prophecy), we all have witnessed the unprecedented triumph of the people power (the Oracle) in our modern history. Despite the techie’s claims that technological developments of newer tools such as CNN in the early days to the Twitter and Facebook have made the information dissemination faster and more wide-spread, it is really the underlying force of this democratic movements driven by the people’s desire for Free Will seems to be on its way to unbalance the Matrix. You Neo are the One who has been led to the Source by the Keymaker, should not be swayed by the Architects’ assertion to reboot the Matrix again. Let me tell you why.

In our modern history, the Fed (member of the Architects) has been manipulating interest rates and the supply of money in our economy by using repos/reverse repos to implement their monetary policies and the unique Quantitative Easing programs through Wall Street dealers (the Martix) in a pattern of creations and destructions of Main Street (Zion) over and over again while rebooting Wall Street (the Matrix) with revitalized new life to maintain its status quo of the continuously enriched establishments. In particular, Bernanke’s QE and QE2 seemed to have made “Greenspan Put” a child play. Although the Matrix system does have many obvious fundamental serous problems and weaknesses but it somehow kept rebooting itself at the expense of our remaining Human Race who reside at Zion.

Whipsawing the economy is really what their monetary policy doctrine or the much worshipped Monetarism is all about. Inflating bubbles, deflating bubbles, jerking our domestic Main Street economy in the past seems to be not enough, now with the free flow of dollar-based capital, they have the entire global markets to jerk around with in the world and keep playing those same bubble blowing, popping, blowing, popping games all over again, under the disguise or the much worshipped theory called “Monetarism”. In these processes, the Wall Street insiders (the Matrix) get to reap obscene profits and revitalize itself at the expense of exploiting the Main Street (the Humans) over and over again.

Simply take a look at the recent history since Bernanke and Geithner took office. Ben has been a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System since September 2002 to June 2005 during the bubble building years. He became the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors from June 2005 to January 2006 and then became Chairman of the Federal Reserve on February 1st, 2006. Timothy on the other hand was holding the key influential role to Wall Street as the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from November 17, 2003 to January 26, 2009 until he became the Secretary of Treasury Department on January 26th of 2009. Together they had been a crucial part of the front men of the Architects of the Matrix to reboot the Matrix when Matrix should have been totally destroyed should there had been no crony forces at work.

Knowing there was a housing market bubble, instead of finding viable soft landing policy alternatives, from June 30th of 2004 until June 29th of 2006 they raised the Fed Fund Rates from 1% all the way to 5.25% in order to throwing darts randomly to “pop the bubble” under the doctrines of “Monetarism”. Facing a crisis in 2007, they decided that they could build more bubbles than Greenspan ever did. From September 8th of 2007 through December 16th of 2008 until today they brought down the Fed Fund Rate from 5.25% to .025% again, under the doctrines of “Monetarism” and presumed prudent “Central Banking Policies”. Furthermore with the newly invented Quantitative Easing Programs, they have started to flood the whole world with dollar liquidity to build even more asset bubbles across the board and induce further global social instability. Until today nobody could really find out what the Architects’ true motives are.

Do they really know what they are doing or have they simply been making it up along the way? If they are so smart and love asset bubble building so much then Greenspan had ever been able to, why did they even bother to “pop Greenspan’s housing bubble” back in 2004 to 2006 to begin with? Wouldn’t it be just as convenient to leave the Fed Fund Rates unchanged and find other housing equity sharing based soft landing policies to cool down the economy instead? That would have led to a Paradise Matrix rather than the Nightmare Matrix they are turning us into now.

It is really funny to observe how the Architects have been busy congratulating and promoting themselves for a presumed job well done in preserving the Wall Street (the Matrix) to avoid a depression and dodging the fact that they were actually the very one who had created the Global Crisis of 2008 to begin with by blindly popping the Greenspan’s housing bubble through their hawkish policies between 2004 to 2006.

What they have really preserved was merely the previous Wall Street crony establishments. A depression it was not. The public certainly needs to know better that there would not have been a depression and that we would all have been better off now had the Architects not done the rescuing of the privileged few at our taxpayers’ expenses in 2008. Cronyism simply means there is an artificial human intervention of the natural selection process for the benefits of the privileged few at the expense of others. We all could live just fine without Goldman Sachs, really.

Given the current economic policies and an unknown and dangerous future for both the US and the world, have any academics been paying attention to analyze how the Architects’ economic policies to date have grossly polarized the American economy between the haves and have-nots while creating the biggest destruction of the middle class in America that have shaken the working class’s faith in Capitalism? The Matrix seems to be getting more and more unbalanced from its own exploitation.

Anyway Neo, for now you seem to have been cloned to just another Agent Smith. Until the next time we talk again, I await your next act.

03/04/2011 Has Bernanke’s QE 2 shock-and-awe strategy to corner the bond market backfired?

Friday, March 4th, 2011

As I kept searching for an answer to Bernanke’s perplexing QE 2 program for him, I could not help keep trying to find some more excuses for him. His own excuse that he wanted to help create jobs for Americans by hoping to bring the long term interest levels down simply was not convincing enough and sounded more and more absurd. Even a bozo knows more easy money and more flood of dollar liquidity will not help reduce unemployment for Americans before they create millions of jobs for the Chinese, Brazilians, Australians, Wall Street fat cats and big banks in America.

The long term interest rates went sharply higher instead, as explained in the previous blog post, making it more and more difficult for people to own homes and hence further depressed property value that destroyed the core of American wealth. Small businessmen found it harder and harder to create business opportunities and jobs across America.

The excess dollar liquidity would also only be and had indeed been sucked up by the big banks and the fortune 500 big multi national corporations who work only for their own share holders, not the American public and who create jobs only where it makes more sense at the least cost. So $600 million would not do it to create any significant number of jobs for Americans. Not even $6 trillion, before it turns the world upside down.

Meanwhile, this dollar liquidity has flooded the market and has created hyper inflation in food, clothing and energy for the rest of the world. Although the iPad economists like Bernanke keeps claiming that there is no inflation in the US after they have walked around Best Buy stores in their bargain hunting shopping trips, the majority of the world’s population does not live on notebook PCs, flat screen TVs or Groupon bargain deals.

When people can not get affordable food and basic living necessities to feed and clothe their family and themselves, social unrest ensues. It does not take a PhD to understand this. Bernanke simply needs to watch more of these extraordinary events unfold around the world by turning on his new flat screen TV that he bought on a bargain sale at Best Buy.

Will Bernanke be the person to unleash and bring out the four horsemen to our world by December 21st, 2012?

10/16/2010 An open letter to the US Treasury regarding the recent discussions with NAR, NAHB and FDIC on SwapRent

Saturday, October 16th, 2010

Date: Sat, 16 Oct 2010 14:42:30 -0700
To: Jeffrey Goldstein
From: Ralph Liu
Subject: Recent discussions with NAR, NAHB and FDIC on SwapRent

Dear Mr. Goldstein, Deputy Treasury Secretary for Domestic Finance,

bcc: relevant Administration, State and Congressional colleagues

I hope you and your colleagues have had a chance to review the information I sent to you on August 28th.

Here below is some information regarding our efforts to work with industry groups and some government agencies to help revive the property markets, establish a new alternative housing finance system and to help our country restore our economic prosperity. Please kindly review again the attached articles or the recent blog post by Larry Doyle for an executive summary:

http://www.senseoncents.com/2010/08/alternative-housing-finance-how-does-swaprent-work/#more-22025

Although everybody relevant from different levels of governments, NGOs and academics around the world we have spoken to within the past few years who have studied the SwapRent proposal thought it would make great sense for the US government to take immediate action on it. Many others who may have a role in its implementation seem to like to pass the ball back to your court, citing potential political obstacles. Please feel free to let me know if you would like to see what others say if that may be important to you and your colleagues.

It has been over 3 years since I first presented our SwapRent proposal in July 2007 to Treasury, the Fed and the various departments and agencies of the Administration before the financial crisis started. At this juncture, it is getting more and more costly day by day to continue to risk our country’s future on those conventional monetary or arcane fiscal economic stimulus policies that have been proven to be not working now.

Piling up more debts and flood the market with more easy credits in those old conventional monetary and fiscal policies (which caused the current troubles to begin with) may have worked once upon a time in history for some rich countries or countries with real competitive productivity in the past (including the US) but probably not for some governments with a broken coffer and bloated debt obligations now. Those desperate attempts to put down more chips from borrowed money on the gaming table trying to gambling back all that has been lost remind people of those rogue traders who eventually brought down the banks. The simple truth is that no one has access to unlimited borrowed capital to keep repeating the games and oftentimes the apocalyptic judgement day beckons way before lady luck does.

As mentioned below, social sciences evolve with innovations just like the technology world would. Governments, academics and private sectors may need to have an open mind to keep up with the time and think outside the box. People need to wake up and think straight that we are not in the 30′s anymore. Further delay in adopting alternative innovative approaches may certainly create irrevocable consequences to our country’s economic future. History will tell.

I do hope that I may be saying something you and your colleagues already know and that you may have some other credible plans on your own but for better political transparency and accountability, would you and your colleagues at both the Treasury and at the Fed kindly consider providing a public stance on these over 3-year old SwapRent related proposals to the Administration, as requested by the leading industry groups below? Thanks again.

P.S. Please kindly focus on the merits and the execution details of the SwapRent proposal itself, not other tangential considerations. I apologize for the somewhat impatient tone of this message and I have no intention to offend anyone, just a simple desire to help save our country’s economic future with your assistance on actual actions or an open democratic debate if inactions.

==============
Date: Fri, 15 Oct 2010 09:30:51 -0700
To: Lawrence Yun
From: Ralph Liu
Subject: RE: Recent discussions with NAHB and FDIC on SwapRent
Cc: Jerry Giovaniello, Cliff Niersbach, Kevin Milligan, Paul Bishop, Jed Smith

Sure Larry. I will send you some more relevant info in the next email.

Within the past few years since July 2007, we have received various comments from the Fed, Treasury Dept, the Administration agencies, state governments, industry groups and many foundations and academics on their views and stance on the SwapRent proposal. Everybody seems to have been waiting for the others to move first in the past few years. By now it seems we could gather enough critical mass and momentum to move forward. We may just need some strong leadership from relevant industry groups.

============
At 09:01 AM 10/15/2010, Lawrence Yun wrote:

Mr. Liu,

Thank you for sharing your idea. It is intriguing and could help the market. However, at this time, we do not believe it can gain political transaction. I would like to know of response you get from the Treasury Department on this topic. Thank you again for sending.

Best regards,

Lawrence Yun
Chief Economist and SVP of Research
National Association of REALTORS

From: Ralph Liu [mailto:ralph.liu@swaprent.com]
Sent: Friday, October 15, 2010 2:24 AM
To: Dale Stinton
Cc: Vicki Cox Golder; Ron Phipps; Moe Veissi; Jim Helsel; Vince Malta; Brooke Hunt; Jerry Giovaniello; Cliff Niersbach; Kevin Milligan; Lawrence Yun; Paul Bishop; Jed Smith
Subject: Recent discussions with NAHB and FDIC on SwapRent

Dear Mr. Stinton,

Here below are some recent discussions that I had with NAHB and with FDIC. I hope you and your colleagues may also find it helpful to understand where SwapRent and FARJHO stand in effectively applying the simple shared equity related economic concepts and how it could be used to help restore our country’s economy. Since real estate market is regional by nature with supply and demand limited to a defined geographical area, the desired implementation economic effects could be accomplished in any city or county on a standalone basis to create jobs and restore the local economic prosperity. For your kind review and considerations.

Would your organization be interested in getting involved? Thanks again.

=================

Date: Thu, 30 Sep 2010 16:54:41 -0700
To: “Ledford, David”
From: Ralph Liu
Subject: The new alternative home ownership structure (FARJHO) and the housing finance system (SwapRent) that could also create jobs and reduce deficits
Cc: “Howard, Jerry”, “Catalde, Brian”, “Dunn, Sandy J.”, “Robson, Joe”, “Jones, Bob”, , “Logan, Mary”, “Crowe, Dave”,

Dear David,

Thank you for your feedback and comments today on my email to Jerry and other board members. I am glad to learn that there are more and more people who have come to the realization of the power of these new economic concepts.

Shared equity and/or shared appreciation related generic concepts are not new and they have mostly been practiced in the UK for over 30 years. Most recently in the US and Australia we had also seen some new ventures back in 2007 trying to introduce those same old methods before the mortgage crisis started. These concepts have not caught on simply because those primitive business methods engaged in the UK, Australia and the US to provide the economic benefits to consumers were not good enough. There existed plenty of room for new innovations on new business methods in this field back then, similar to the opportunity of how Steve Job’s iPhone could potentially replace Gordon Gekko’s Motorola platform shoe sized cell phone. Social sciences evolve with innovations just like technologies would.

That was exactly the reason why the deliberate research efforts of the SwapRent method, its subsequent simplified version of FARJHO and their related various new mortgage instruments and markets were originally embarked on and were subsequently invented back in 2006. These events were chronicled in the original patent applications back in 2006 and many subsequent academic publications or in many leading trade journals listed on the SwapRent.com web site. In short, SwapRent and FARJHO represent the more mature and the latest developments in the evolution spectrum of the shared equity or shared appreciation concept to own homes.

Without the crisis in 2008 few would pay attention to and appreciate the timely new economic utilities of these new inventions of real business methods to make the simple shared equity concept practical and possible but these new inventions were not created in 2006 to simply anticipate and cater to some particular needs of solving the crisis, such as rescuing the underwater houses as you had brought up. These new inventions together would provide an alternative housing finance system with many potential application opportunities that have very broad implications to our capitalism society.

The beauty of all these inventions is that these new economic benefits would be made available to everyone on a pure free market basis. Nobody would force anybody to accept and give up anything unwillingly. Consumers make their own choices for their own good. If some folks do not like some particular applications for ideological, religious, opinionated, individual preferences and tastes or any other reasons, they could simply skip those applications and move on with those that would make more sense to them in their particular situations.

Below is some more recent info on what I have shared with some of the government agencies similar to what I have shared most recently with Jerry et al before. Please feel free to let me know if you would like review some more detailed comments from the senior executives at our federal, state governments, banks, home builders, Wall Street firms, congressional staff members, G7 and other central banks in Asia, Europe and the Middle East as well as many think tanks and leading academics around the world regarding our advanced discussions within the past few years on the potential applications of SwapRent and FARJHO to date to implement those economic ideas in their countries.

Regarding the investor’s sentiments in a particular country, the whole idea of the proposed economic implementation strategy is to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy without using debt. The more free market participation the more likely the property prices will indeed rise, hence the more likely the economic prosperity will be brought back up, hence the more likely the investors will make money and hence the more likely investors will flock to offer to provide the SwapRent cashflows to property owners who are willing to do this exhange of cashflows for appreication potential. It may be similar to how the Fed uses monetary policy to lower the interest rates to “stimulate the economy” or to “corner the property market up” in the past but there is no debt involved this time around.

Now that many people have understood the powerless state of the conventional monetary policy to channel credit down to the small businessmen and property owners in the local communities across America in order to restore our economic prosperity, perhaps it may be time to consider using some new innovative equity based home financing methods such as SwapRent to “stimulate the economy” or to “corner the market up”. These concepts and specific detailed methods on what the government or central banks could do are described in the HFI-IUHF paper that I have published.

To answer your questions, due to the simplicity of the new variation of the FARJHO structure we have received tremendous consumer demand at http://www.InvestorsAlly.com . Since the scale of the more sophisticated but much more powerful SwapRent project at http://www.REIDeX.com may be much bigger than a typical entrepreneurial project could handle due to the current crisis and public perception, we are very eager to work with organizations like yours to re-design it and set it up to benefit our country for the greater good as explained to the government agency below.

We would be quite happy to let these not-for-profit organizations take the lead in coming up with a new structure that may make sense for our country. If it is on a pure NFP basis, foundations such as MacArthur, Ford and Milken Institute, Peterson Institute etc. which we have been in touch with in the past few years may participate as well let alone some of the government agencies if some credible organization like yours is willing to take the lead.

If it is on a commercial basis, each home builder member of your organization could simply become a share holder of REIDeX, Inc. and your organization could play a leading coordination role in making this happen for the benefits of your members while doing good to the homeowners and our society in general at the same time. If this is of interest to you please feel free to make any other suggestions that your board members may feel more comfortable with.

Please do not hesitate to call me for a more in-depth discussion. Thanks again.

============

At 03:04 PM 9/30/2010, Ledford, David wrote:

Mr. Liu,

Jerry Howard asked me to respond to the information you provided on the SwapRent and FARJHO programs. These are interesting variations on the concepts of shared-equity financing and lease-to-own homeownership programs that have been employed in various forms for a number of years. I am interested in following up with you to get more information on the activity you are seeing with your versions of these programs. NAHB is strongly interested in finding effective means of reducing the overhang of unsold homes and exploring effective means to do so.

I do have reservations on the prospects for gaining support for using the SwapRent program as a means of addressing the problem of underwater mortgages and related mortgage foreclosures. The SwapRent program is innovative in providing a cash flow to homeowners in exchange for a piece of the future upside on prices, with the goal of increasing consumer consumption and stimulating the economy. However, attempting to address the foreclosure crisis by bringing in equity to upside down borrowers would require large federal and/or private subsidies, which are not likely to be forthcoming in the foreseeable future. It seems there would be particular difficulty in convincing investors to make such a major bet on appreciation in home values in an ongoing period of price instability, and the current political tarnish on programs aimed at expanding homeownership would greatly impede efforts to gain legislative support for providing public funds for such a program.

In short, the objectives of such a program are at odds with current economic and political perceptions and, therefore, seem unlikely to be achieved. While the program may have some potential to be utilized over the very long run, I don?t see it getting any traction any time soon.

Thanks for sharing this information with us.

Best regards,

DAVID L. LEDFORD
National Association of Home Builders

============

Date: Wed, 08 Sep 2010 12:59:43 -0700
To: “Krimminger, Michael H.”
From: Ralph Liu
Subject: Re: FW: SwapRent as a new alternative economic policy management tool for governments
Cc: “Rowley, Clare D.” , “Eliopoulos, George” , “Bair, Sheila C.”

Thanks for your note Mr. Krimminger. Most Americans would probably prefer to see these new services remain entrepreneurial and run by private sectors to create jobs based on pure free market principles, rather than being run and managed by the government itself.

The role that agencies such as FDIC could get involved actively is probably to become the active users of SwapRent to more efficiently and effectively accomplish its various missions that you have described below. As you probably have already understood that there is no need to come up with the money and provide any subsidy as a give-away in the SwapRent system. Governments as users only play the role as a facilitator or a middleman to channel the capital from the private sectors to solve the problems of distressed loans held by the banks, the same economic role of a middleman that the GSEs were originally supposed to play, irrespective of their failed methods and financing structures.

As a potential active user of SwapRent that could help taxpayers benefit directly from these new advantages that SwapRent may provide in helping manage the failed banks, perhaps you would consider staying closely involved in our quest to make this happen with the various government entities, or even taking a more active role to champion it.

I realize that due to the scale of the program, unless the government stays behind the project of creating an active market for SwapRent contracts it may not give people the necessary degree of comfort to start using these new innovative services to help restore our country’s economic prosperity. I am quite willing to contribute whatever it may be necessary to make it work for the greater good.

I will continue to follow up with Treasury Department and Congressional members to see if somebody is willing to take the opportunity to champion this project for the greater good. The reward for them would go beyond helping them accomplish their political goals in providing a timely public service that would really help many people in need. History will certain record their pro-active contributions when the tides of economic tsunamis were curbed by their pioneering efforts to implement these new innovative solutions. They might deserve a Nobel Peace Prize much more than some other leading politicians did! :-)

Meanwhile if you and your colleagues feel you might be able to further assist us in directing us to the exact proper people within the Administration to help make it happen together, please feel free to let me know. Thanks again.

==========
At 11:57 AM 9/8/2010, Krimminger, Michael H. wrote:

Mr Liu,

I am the Deputy for Policy to Chairman Bair. She asked me to respond to your email once we had had an opportunity to review your proposal.

We do appreciate your contacting us. The FDIC welcomes innovative solutions to the current home foreclosure crisis. Your proposal is thorough; however the FDIC is not the appropriate federal agency to facilitate the creation of such an exchange. While the FDIC is working with many borrowers to address their distress on loans made by failed banks, we are seeking to recover value or sell those loans and are not in a position to subsidize them as suggested in your proposal. We would suggest that you follow-up with Treasury to determine if they are considering additional programs to address broader housing distress. Thank you again for your proposal,

Best regards,
Michael Krimminger
Deputy to the Chairman for Policy
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

From: Bair, Sheila C.
Sent: Monday, August 30, 2010 1:01 PM
To: ‘Ralph Liu’
Cc: Rowley, Clare D.
Subject: RE: SwapRent as a new alternative economic policy management tool for governments

Thanks. Will take a look.

From: Ralph Liu [ mailto:ralph.liu@swaprent.com]
Sent: Wednesday, August 25, 2010 2:07 PM
To: Bair, Sheila C.
Cc: Rowley, Clare D.
Subject: Fwd: SwapRent as a new alternative economic policy management tool for governments

Dear Chairman Bair,

For your kind review and comments. Thanks again.

==============
Date: Sat, 28 Aug 2010 14:39:10 -0700
To: Jeffrey Goldstein
From: Ralph Liu
Subject: SwapRent as a new alternative economic policy management tool for governments and central banks

Dear Mr. Goldstein, Deputy Treasury Secretary for Domestic Finance,

bcc: relevant Administration, State and Congressional colleagues

Here below is a link to a recent public blog post by Wall Street veteran Larry Doyle on how the governments could take advantage of the SwapRent contracts to help our country de-leverage, stimulate the economy and create jobs at the same time. For yours and your relevant colleagues further kind review and considerations. Thanks again.

http://www.senseoncents.com/2010/08/alternative-housing-finance-how-does-swaprent-work/#more-22025

===============

Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2010 17:41:27 -0700
To: Jeffrey Goldstein
From: Ralph Liu
Subject: FARJHO at InvestorsAlly.com and SwapRent at REIDeX.com

Dear Mr. Goldstein,

I wonder whether you have been forwarded information on SwapRent in the past by many of your colleagues at the Treasury Department which I have corresponded with since July 2007. I have also visited some of the relevant Treasury staff members in their DC office during the previous Administration back in October 2008 while I was invited to DC by the Milken Institute to speak at their Housing Finance Innovations Lab.

In light of the conference on the future of housing finance yesterday, I would like to give you an update and an introduction to the FARJHO services as a free market based alternative home ownership structure offered at our recently spun-off new venture InvestorsAlly, Inc. ( http://www.InvestorsAlly.com ). These new services could also present a great way for fixer-upper or distressed real estate investors/flippers in either a REIT or a private equity real estate fund to have a quicker exit strategy by offering a genuine housing affordability to homeowners. Some of the more sophisticated investors may also be interested in the more advanced SwapRent-based arbitrage trading strategies of distressed mortgages/trust deeds on commercial properties as described below.

The simple way to describe the business model for InvestorsAlly is an Internet-based peer-to-peer marketplace for aspiring home owners and would-be property investors to meet and negotiate, combined with conventional real estate franchisee brokerage offices across the country. Although it has an Internet based operation for gathering and capturing investors, the actual operations of the property transactions for homeowners will be done by the local franchisee agents across the country in shopping centers or office complexes in each city to help conclude these all equity deals to buy homes.

Although there are a lot of info on our web sites already, here below is a summarized up-to-date introduction to our FARJHO and SwapRent services from an academic angle as well as some files (referred to as attached) of recent relevant industry press coverage.

From an economist’s point of view, you may also be interested in learning more about how central banks and governments could use SwapRent as the third alternative economic policy management tool, in addition to the conventional monetary and fiscal policies in order to finally be able to de-leverage and stimulate at the same time.

http://swaprent.com/blog/2009/12/06/12062009-how-small-business-owners-could-use-swaprent-transactions-to-create-jobs-at-grassroots-level/

http://swaprent.com/blog/2009/11/01/11012009-swaprent-rates-offer-another-new-dimension-for-governments-to-perform-economic-stimulus-without-resorting-to-lowering-interest-rates-only/

http://swaprent.com/blog/2009/10/13/10132009-how-swaprent-program-could-reduce-the-re-default-rate-and-create-local-neighborhood-prosperity/

Please feel free to let me know if you have any questions or comments regarding our efforts to develop these new innovative home ownership and housing finance system alternatives. Your help and participation would be highly appreciated. Thanks.

==============
Regarding the academic research of SwapRent as an alternative new housing finance system that I have been working on for the past few years, please see the recently published article (see attached) on SwapRent at the Housing Finance International of IUHF (International Union for Housing Finance, http://www.housingfinance.org ).

We have also created a much simpler, non-derivatives based, new joint home ownership structure call FARJHO. The launch of the new services may have a potential impact to our nation’s housing market. Please see the recent news coverage in Hedge Fund Alert. More info is available at our recently launched new peer-to-peer multi-lingual web site http://www.InvestorsAlly.com .

In the current market, through FARJHO, property investors as InvestorsAlly’s customers could expect around 5 to 7% or even higher current dividend yield while waiting for the market recovery and further price appreciation of US residential properties without worrying about vacancy or excessive annual operating expenses. The total return could be quite significant due to the potential price appreciation from many distressed and foreclosed properties.

The more popular this type of non-debt, fractional interest equity investment to attract fresh capital injection from around the world to jointly own homes becomes, the more likely the property market will indeed be restored to its previous value with a “non-leveraged stable growth” sooner. Homeowners would get to enjoy the social stability at the same time.

Academically, one of the main economic benefits that both FARJHO and SwapRent contracts, each in their different ways, provide to investors is to make Single Family Residences (SFR) income producing assets (with a stable positive yield like that of owning a rental apartment) and hence made investable by professional institutional investors. It would be a great way for pension funds and insurance companies to diversify their portfolios by extending the investment choices into currently the world’s largest asset class through these new innovative investment vehicles.

The state, county (and city) public employees and teachers pension funds would be the best candidates to become the anchor local institutional property investors to help homeowners to co-own homes through the new FARJHO concept in order to foster local economic revivals and continuing prosperity. They could of course resell those FARJHO LLC member interests to other free market investors at any time in order to regenerate and scale up the scope of available capital. Attracting fresh capital from around the world this way to local communities could certainly help the state, county and city governments fix their current budget deficits under a free market mechanism.

Policy-wise, the simple new economic concept is that people would need to start thinking outside the box, borrowing money to own homes should not be the only way to own homes. Promoting homeownership for social good purposes could also be accomplished through partial equity sharing, just like how corporate ownership has evolved in the last few centuries with the development of a stock market in each country. It is about time that we should seriously treat equity financing and developing a tradable secondary market of home equities as a viable way to promote homeownership.

In addition, with the introduction of the separation of shelter value from the economic value (or usufruct value from the investment value) of owning a real estate property by the new SwapRent related methodologies and its secondary market REIDeX, boom and bust cycles created by the investment value of properties and exacerbated by the abuse of lending/borrowing could easily be avoided and homeowners could get to enjoy the social stability as long as they stick to the shelter value part of their homeownership.

Although the SwapRent related efforts were originally designed for both residential and commercial properties, due to the housing related residential mortgage crises, so far most of the attentions have been focused on developing applications primarily from a residential property owner’s perspective. The application opportunities are indeed equally available for commercial property owners to enjoy similar economic benefits. We have only recently started an effort to offer these services to the commercial real estate investors and distressed mortgage assets holders. The most relevant article that talks about the trading of distressed mortgages is the attached article published by SCI (Structured Credit Investors). I have also attached a recent article on SwapRent by National Mortgage News. The three relevant web sites are listed below in my signature file.

For examples on how to use SwapRent to help trade distressed mortgages or trust deed notes on commercial properties and CMBS, please kindly review the most recent blog entries on 4/20/2010 and 3/15/2010 at the following link. http://swaprent.com/blog/ or more conveniently,

http://swaprent.com/blog/2010/04/20/04202010-examples-on-swaprents-commercial-property-applications/

http://swaprent.com/blog/2010/03/15/03152010-commercial-property-applications-of-swaprent-and-pelm/

One interesting concept to note is that the residential SwapRent and FARJHO applications on Single Family Residences basically make SFR similar to investable income-producing assets like multi-family apartment complexes and should hence be treated like any other commercial properties for institutional investments going forward.

09/03/2010 The polarization of American economy – from fictitious housing affordability to fictitious economic recovery

Friday, September 3rd, 2010

While short term floating rates, teaser rates and subprime mortgages had contributed to the fictitious housing affordability with Wall Street’s promotions and the politicians’ blessings, historians in the future will realize the illusionary nature of the currently touted fictitious economic recovery when they examine the legacies of the policies of the current Administration and the Fed. A strong stock market and bubble-like bond markets built by near zero interested rate Fed policy have created the mirage necessary for politicians to temporarily hang on to their jobs.

As the near zero interest rates have made the Wall Street bank fat cat even fatter day by day, leading US corporations have made billions due to low borrowing cost in the US and cheap labor cost overseas, small businessmen and local property owners in America could not even borrow to survive and local residents could not hang on to their old homes or to borrow to buy new homes, the fundamental economic structure of the US has been going through a fundamental paradigm shifting polarization. The wealth has become more unevenly distributed at a historically unprecedented proportion.

A big portion of our GDP and consumer consumptions were indeed created by those elite segments of our economy that circle around fortune 500 corporations, big banks, Wall Street firms. It is quite amazing and ironic to realize that this phenomenon has been partly created and further exacerbated by the Democrat Party controlled Administration.

It seems to be a case of a lack of intellectual capability, constructive attitude rather than political ideologies. Many of these old school economic policy makers and advisors may need to be re-tooled and recharged and have an open mind to learn and adopt new innovative solutions to keep up with the time. Fighting an evolutionary trend of new ideas by playing ostrich will not be the solution for long. New ideas will catch on with or without them.

From the macro-policy standard point, keeping extremely lower interest rate levels may only help the big banks and Wall Street firms make more monopolistic money through many no-risk spread trading strategies that include investment strategy as simple as borrowing money from the Fed at near zero cost and invest in US treasury securities and other low risk assets. It is almost equivalent to the license to steal granted by many governments to the well-connected crony oligarchs in many third world countries.

These obsolete monetary policies (by simply moving interest rates up and down) do not trickle down to home owners and small businessmen through more mortgages or business loans offered by credit unions and local community banks. There is an obvious problematic disconnect between the existing monetary policies and our country’s banking credit systems, hence an opportunity for innovative solutions.

For a viable new economic policy management solution through the SwapRent contracts please visit the recent blog by Larry Doyle. http://www.senseoncents.com/2010/08/alternative-housing-finance-how-does-swaprent-work/

There are no better entities and infrastructure than the existing local community banks, credit unions and their industries to implement these new innovative solutions at the grassroots levels so that we could finally take the helm of deciding our country’s economic destiny from those big banks and Wall Street firms back to the risk-taking entrepreneurs and small businessmen at the various community levels and let the American entrepreneurial and hard-working spirits flourish once again to form a more solid economic foundation for our country and to build a more stable and long term prosperity.

Any budding aspiring elected officials with political ambitions willing to stick your neck out? It does not matter whether you are a Democrat, Republican or Tea Party member, our country urgently needs new effective economic policies implemented by whoever can make it happen, irrespective of your political stripes.

11/08/2009 SwapRent as an economic policy tool – How GSEs could use SwapRent to free up FRB to manage monetary policy more independently

Sunday, November 8th, 2009

In two ways. First as an immediate solution to the current legacy mortgage assets problems so that it could free up the Federal Reserve Board to manage interest rate levels in a more independent way. Second, use SwapRent rates for different contract maturity as a new economic stimulus policy tool going forward to adjust the property value levels as a source of our national wealth that could stimulate or restrain the economic activities in local communities.

There have been many writings in the SwapRent web site or SwapRent.com blog sites about how SwapRent and HELM could be used in a concept similar to a debt-for-equity swap so that homeowners could hold on to their homes and mortgage investors could avoid financial losses. It will not be repeated in details here again. The most direct consequences of this new non-lending but rather co-ownership based housing finance system for GSEs are that homeowners will get to de-leverage through this new realization of the debt-for-equity swap concept, Fannie and Freddie could de-leverage because the mortgage assets would get to be fixed up and sold to other free market investors, and our nation could de-leverage because taxpayer’s money would no longer be tied up to rescue these troubled financial institutions. Nothing is more effective than tackling the problem right at its roots, i.e. to help homeowners avoid foreclosures and design new ways to increase home property value without inappropriate borrowing.

In this blog posting, I would like to focus on the second most important way that a liquid SwapRent rates market could help our nation’s policy makers manage the national economy. Let’s have a quick review what a SwapRent contract is first.

What a SwapRent contract does is to allow both existing and would-be property owners to switch between owning and renting economically back and forth with a very low transaction cost at any time they want for a specified period of time for whatever reasons they may have. Therefore the pricing of a SwapRent contract relies on the cost differential between the cost to own a property (say 5% of the current house value per annum) and the cost to rent a property (say 2% of the current house value per annum) for an intended period of time.

Using the same numerical example of a $800,000 house in Southern California, the annual 3% (difference between 5% to own and 2% to rent) own-rent cost differential will translate into a $2,000 monthly for a 100% “temporary own-rent switching” or “economic renting” for a period of time, say 5 years. That is where the monthly subsidy would come from. Whoever wants to own the future appreciation in 5 years’ time similar to a convention owner will pay the monthly subsidy to the current property legal title owner. For a 50% “temporary own-rent switching”, the monthly subsidy will be only half of that, i.e. $1,000 per month. Therefore the current property legal title owner could still enjoy the remaining 50% appreciation potential, hence the conventional understanding of the “shared appreciation” concept could be more flexibly and reversibly realized by a SwapRent contract.

The cost to own in the Western financial system such as the US is simply to current interest rate level derived from the interest rate term structure. The best proxy for the cost to own in the US is the corresponding Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) rate levels published by the Federal Reserve Board at its web site every day. The corresponding maturity SwapRent rate levels would be determined by participants at REIDeX or the interbank markets.

The Federal Reserve Board could go through GSE such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or even government owned Ginnae Mae and let them act as one of the free market participants to assume the role of the “economic landlord investors” themselves first to provide the monthly subsidy to homeowners. They could alter the supply and demand factors through being either more or less aggressive in bidding for the SwapRent rates in this freely traded marketplace, not unlike how the Fed currently conducts its interest rate policy through the short term repo markets with the banks.

Using the same 5-year contract as the example, if the Government wants to stimulate the local economy at grassroots level it could be more aggressive in granting monthly subsidy through being willing to accept a lower SwapRent rate of 1.5% or 1% (instead of the previous starting point of 2%). Therefore the monthly subsidy the homeowners receive would be equivalent to a higher annual 3.5% or 4% of the current house value instead when the homeowner decides to enter into a SwapRent transaction with the GSE.

As explained many times before, given an interest rate level fixed at 5% for a given contract maturity, the more aggressive (i.e. the more generous) the government is willing to offer the monthly subsidy amount to homeowners in the form of a lower SwapRent rate it is willing to receive, the more likely more property owners in the community will take up the offer as a free market choice, the more people have signed up that would create buying demand the more likely there is a perception that the local properties will indeed appreciate in the future and the local economy will indeed strengthen, the more likely the SwapRent contracts that capture the financial value of partial future appreciation of these underlying properties will then increase in value and the more likely the GSEs could sell them at a higher price to other free market investors in order for the GSEs to regenerate the capital to provide more assistance to other American homeowners to own homes. It is indeed a self-fulfilling expectation and perhaps reality, exactly similar to what adjusting the interest rate levels by the Fed could do to the investment psychology and perhaps reality of our future national economy.

From a local property owner’s perspective, a 100% ownership of future appreciation potential in five year’s time will mean zero financial gains when there is no appreciation at all. There could even be further losses when the property value further depreciates. Sharing and maintaining a remaining 50% appreciation potential in order to help stop foreclosure selling and increase overall buying demand in the local community may still entitle the property owner a 10% gain when there is an overall 20% rise on the value of the specific property or on a house price index. In short, 100% of zero is still zero but 50% of a 20% appreciation will be a 10% gain to enjoy. Not a bad deal when you are also getting paid handsomely every month for that to happen.

The homeowners could do the SwapRent transaction with GSE directly or the GSEs could decide to engage a fee-earning local financial intermediary, housing agency of a local governments etc. in order to better administer and better monitor the on-going credit risks.

The GSE or financial intermediary could also better manage the transaction through converting the homeowner’s existing mortgages into a SwapRent imbedded HELM (Home Equity Locking Mortgage). A HELM could simply take on the legal format of an AITD (All Inclusive Trust Deed) which would be a wrap-around package of the existing first mortgage and a contingent second mortgage that settles the payoff of the SwapRent contract at contract maturity date automatically as the new unpaid balance of HELM at that time, to accomplish all the desired economic outcomes with very little or no cost and admin hassles to the homeowners.

After offering that new HELM to the homeowners either directly or through local financial intermediaries, the GSE itself could then use another new offsetting SwapRent to cancel out the exposure of the embedded SwapRent contract in the HELM in order to lay off their property value risks and appreciation potentials (similar to an equity co-ownership piece) with other free market based investors through the inter-bank market or REIDeX. These ultimate investors of these co-ownership SwapRent contracts could be state and local pension funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, foreign sovereign wealth funds or in short, any free market participants.

As explained before, many state, county and city pension funds could benefit directly by acting as the ultimate “economic landlord” investors to provide the needed monthly cash flows to homeowners for a fair share of the future appreciation potential of the property in return. A successful implementation will not only help many state/county/city treasuries and the state employees’ pension funds with higher returns, but also it may help stabilize or boost the local property value and hence the entire state’s economic prosperity. At the same time, the program will get to accomplish its goal of maintaining social stability through helping the distressed homeowners in their state hang on to their homes very effectively without having to spend any taxpayer’s money for preferential bailout treatments that cause moral hazard and make things worse.

In a sense, as a temporary conduit, GSEs will finally be able to provide funding for American homeownership not just in the form of debt, but also through a new additional form of a non-lending based economic version of tradable home equity co-ownership. The new alternative system could greatly lower the chance of a repeat of the previous subprime mortgage lending abuse fiasco in a purely lending based housing finance system that may often create boom-and-bust cycles and hence social instability.

After understanding the transaction mechanics, let’s take a look at how policy makers could influence SwapRent rates traded in the free marketplace in order to use it to stimulate or restrain economic activities in the local communities through out the country. As explained in blog posts before that in order for the SwapRent market to work as a policy tool the politicians will have to break out of their socialist mentality and treat the new SwapRent program as a 100% free market operation, i.e. let the local property speculators and entrepreneurs participate freely. Make the SwapRent transactions and the monthly subsidy available to anyone who wants it as long as they have a property to be able to share a part of the future upside appreciation with another investor, not just whoever needs it for survival purpose. There should not be any restrictions other than the credit quality, moral, ethical or legal eligibility to participate. Entrepreneurs who are willing to trade off some of the future appreciation potential of the properties they own in order to receive current monthly cash flows so that they could use it to start a new business or to hire more people represent a major target users profile that this SwapRent program is intended to accomplish with.

There are currently many other ineffective bailout plans that create moral hazards by giving preferential treatments to distressed homeowners already in place. That is a good thing since these politicians’ preceptory obligations are done and over with. Now the policy makers could put the free enterprise based SwapRent program in conjunction with or on top of those ineffective bailout plans to really get the necessary work done in order to be able to create wealth again.

So as explained above, when the 5-year IRS rate is at 5%, if the policy makers want to provide stimulus to the local economy they could bid for the 5 year SwapRent rate at 1.5%, 1% or even lower so that the monthly subsidy to property owners is larger (3.5% or 4% of the property value per annum). If they want to cool the heated economy down they could bid for it at 2.5%, 3% or even higher so that the monthly subsidy to property owners is smaller (2.5% or 2% of the property value per annum).

The most important intended concept to illustrate here is that all these could be done irrespective where the current interest rate levels are or will be at in the future. So that when the cost to own or the 5-year IRS rate moves up to 8%, the SwapRent rates would simply move up in tandem and be trading at 4.5% or 4% for a stimulative policy (the same larger subsidy of 3.5% or 4% of the property value per annum) or be trading at 5.5% or 6% for a cooling policy (the same smaller subsidy 2.5% or 2% of the property value per annum).

When the 5-year IRS rate moves down to 2%, the SwapRent rates would simply move down in tandem and be trading at -1.5% or -2% for a stimulative policy (the same larger subsidy 3.5% or 4% of the property value per annum) or be trading at -0.5% or 0% for a cooling policy (the same smaller subsidy of 2.5% or 2% of the property value per annum).

The main point is that the monetary policy of where the interest levels are will no longer be the main driving force of the property value any more. The property value in our nation could be determined in part by the SwapRent rates for local communities that the policy makers could use as an alternative to adjust. That is what it means to offer a new dimension in the economic policy tools for the policy makers. It would not just be the previous only two tools of using monetary policy on interest rates or using fiscal policy on tapping taxpayer’s money anymore.

The Federal Reserve could therefore freely increase the short term discount rates or fed fund rates to curb bubbles from happening in the stock markets, the precious metals markets and the commodity markets in order to avoid a possible run-away hyper-inflation. The high interest rates will no longer hurt the property value or be the sole force to negatively impact the economy anymore as the property value and job creations at the local communities through out the country could be accomplished separately through a very generous co-ownership monthly subsidy offered through influencing lower SwapRent rates in the marketplace by the GSEs. The Fed could finally be freed up to make these monetary decisions on a much more independent basis.

Through influencing the SwapRent rates, it is likely that we may have a double digits long term interest rates to fight inflation and still have a strong property market and a robust economy as the local home value could finally be properly detached partially from the Fed’s short term monetary policies. This is exactly the third dimension as a policy tool that the new SwapRent based non-lending or co-ownership housing finance system could provide as a part of its many advantages.

The beauty of this new SwapRent housing finance system is that capitalism will also be able to best manifest its value and become more politically popular with the mass population as the profit driven motives will allow the Main Street local property investors, speculators and business entrepreneurs at the local community grassroots level, instead of always having to rely on the fat cats on Wall Street as in the past in a primarily securitization based housing finance system, to all participate and to become the locomotive engine to help create wealth for our nation.

Adding this new alternative SwapRent housing finance system would only make everybody happier since it makes not only economic but also political sense due to its inherent more democratic way of wealth sharing capability. By helping create wealth at the grassroots local community level first to drive our country’s economic recovery and growth will certainly help de-polarize the current imbalance and tension between Wall Street and Main Street.